Weekly DJIA through 20-June-2005

The DJIA went down 325 points this week, more than 2/3 of that just on Thursday and Friday. The price bar is still green, but will turn red next week. It looks like at least a 3-4 week downtrend in the market. The proprietary moving average, it should be noted, turned down this week because of the price movement.

As noted in the last post, I'll be away from the PC next week, but I'll be thinking about some new ideas and indicators, which will augment what already is a pretty good, but not great system. Let's see what comes to my mind in the country while I relax from my normal routine.

The Dow closed the week down another 123+ points. Although we've had two days of 100 point plus losses,this can't continue, of course. Monday may be a bad day, or we could easily get a 50 point bounce. Don't be fooled if that happens-- the market is going lower still.

I will be on vacation next week and won't be blogging then. I may come back the next weekend and post day by day charts, or maybe just sum up the week. I feel I'm close, but not quite there, in finding indicators that will provide solid, highly-profitable trades. While I'm away from the city (and computers) I'll think creatively about what pieces are missing from what I currently have to what would be a dynamite system.

The Dow tumbled 166 points today starting what I believe will be a significant decline in the market. I was looking for more sideways movement, but cautioned yesterday that uptrend was running out of time. I think it's safe to say that "time" has run out. Any possibly bad news will cause breaks in the averages, unlike what has been happening where bad news didn't faze the DJIA.

The DJIA slipped another 11+ points today. The market was almost the definition of indecision--not knowing whether to go up or down, so it ends up going sideways. The time for the up move is quickly disappearing and unless we get a quick bounce up, the market will just tread water until the support is removed. Then we should see a quick drop in the market.

The Dow sustained a 9 point loss today, but the price bar is still green (indicating an uptrend) and the length of today's price bar was almost the same as yesterday's prices. The market is very overbought and if the market is going to make a last surge up, it needs to do it tomorrow or Thursday. If not, the market is poised to drop, and probably drop hard.

The DJIA went down around 14 points today, but it doesn't change my feeling that this market has more upside in it before a significant decline. Let's see if tomorrow turns things around. The overbought nature of the market does concern me and a crack could come any day now--but I think it will hold off that decline this week.

Monthly DJIA - May 2005

I realize this is late, but in May 2005, the Dow went up 275 points, however the price bar turned red and the indicators have turned down from a very overbought level. The proprietary moving average did blip up a little from April's level, but the market looks ready to make a down swing. As we know since we're almost three weeks into June, the market went sideways and then has gone up. Let's see how the month ends.

The Dow went up 110 points this week and really, shows no signs of stopping. Although the market never reached the oversold level as measured by the Stochastics indicator at the bottom of the chart, it appears to have stopped in the middle and is now moving back up toward the overbought level. Let's see if this uptrend continues beyond next week.

With the 44 point move up in the Dow today, it confirms that there will be a run up for a week or two before a drop. This up move comes with a record price of $58+/barrel in oil, so the market really, really wants to move higher at this time. Fundamentals can't explain it. This very overbought market will have this run, then may see a significant down trend.

Another 12+ points in the Dow today. Tomorrow is a key day I feel when the market will either decline or decide to get more overbought and make a move up. Let's see how this plays out. If you look to the left of the chart, about seven months ago, you'll see a similar situation with quite a few price bars bunched together in a horizontal range, then a move up for about three weeks. All that happened with a market that was very overbought, like this current one is. A move up isn't unprecedented.

The Dow added almost 19 more points today, but the market condition remains as yesterday, poised for a fall. The market has held up remarkably well considering the price of crude oil has shot over $56/barrel today. All the indicators remain overbought and we should see a fall commencing tomorrow or Friday.

The DJIA closed up 25 points today, but the market still essentially moved sideways again, as expected. The market is even more overbought today and in a day or two I expect the drop to begin.

The Dow closed up almost 10 points today in what was another sideways move in the market. The price bar turned green, but if we're going to have a downtrend starting soon, green bars proceed that more than red ones.
The market is still very overbought, but I think we have a couple more sideways days at least, before the down move begins.

DJIA Weekly through 6-June-2005

The bigger down move I expected this week didn't materialize. Instead the market had choppy up and down days and for the week the DJIA closed up 51 points. The price bar is still green, but I think after a few more sideways days, the market will start a decline.

Another sideways price bar in the Dow closed the week. The average had a 9+ point gain on Friday. The odds now favor more sideways moves, or indecision in the broad market. The indicators remain overbought, but the proprietary moving average curved upward. That has to break down and when it does, I think we'll have a tradable down trend. Until then, small up and down days will be the rule. Will the break happen before the end of the week?
I think it will.

Another sideways day in the Dow, although the closing price was up 26 points today. The sideways, directions market may continue tomorrow, or the market drop may commence.

The Dow went sideways today, closing down 6 points today. I thought the market would break down sharply with a small chance of going sideways and the sideways price bar is what happened. Let's see when this market begins its decline; I think it will be soon.

For a while today, it looked like my prediction of a big down day today in the DJIA would be spectacularly wrong. The Dow was up more than 100 points at one time, but closed up only 16 points. Not a down day at all, but the indicators continue to drop (excepting the CCI). The market may continue sideways movement, but I still favor a big down move, if the market moves in any one direction.

The Dow went up 6 points, but the price bar turned red and the indicators are all pointing lower. The stochastics indicator is just higher than 80, and a break below that line would accelerate the downtrend. Tomorrow should be a down day, and I suspect a big one.

Weekly DJIA through 31-May-2005

The DJIA went down 81 points this week. Although the price bar is still green the market started what I believe is a decent-sized downtrend. I predicted it looked like this week would go down, but without today's decline, the market actually would have been up. I expect a bigger downward move next week.

The Dow fell 92 points today to end the week on a down note, as I predicted yesterday that it would. Where do we go from here? This is only the beginning of down days and I expect the overbought market to roll significantly downhill next week. If you notice, the proprietary moving average did break down once again. This is the time to be short or be out.

The DJIA was nearly unchanged today, finishing up almost 4 points. I still think the market is ready to roll over. Since it didn't do that today, I expect a nice down move tomorrow. The indicators are overbought and except for the proprietary moving average, everything points lower. If you look to the uptrend on the left side of the chart, there was another time when the moving average dipped, went up a little then dropped. All in all, I'm looking for lower prices--and soon.

Today's 82 point up move in the Dow was not expected by me, but it still looks like a last gasp up before the market rolls over. The indicators still are very overbought, even though the proprietary moving average did tip upward. I look for lower prices tomorrow and Friday.