DJIA Predicted Low is 10280

The market didn't go down from the open, but made the low of the day just after the opening bell. However, the market made an inside day, recapturing a little less than 50% of yesterday's drop. The price bar is now red, the shorter moving average has turned down and the market will go lower.

Today's action does give us a chance to predict how far down the DJIA will go on this swing. The high on Friday 12/3 was 10670, the middle of today's price bar is around 10475 so the predicted low of this move is 10475-(10670-10475) or 10280.

If the market holds around that level, we could see a holiday rally, the one that all the market mavens have been predicting. If it goes below that level after another indecision point, the Dow may go much lower into the end of 2004.