Monthly DJIA through January 2005

In January, the Dow declined 293 points although the price bar is still green (implying updward price movement). Even with the loss during January, the indicators shown in the bottom part of the chart are still very, very overbought. Now you can see from those indicators that they can stay overbought for months, even years, so those in themselves don't necessarily indicate an imminent down move. Of course, every downmove starts from an overbought condition at some point, but there's no reason to believe this is the time for it. Having said that, the market did decline last month, so this month will show whether the market might move downward or continue it's rise back to old highs. I'm guessing the market will fall, but only the days ahead will show the truth.